Cruise Shipyards’ Long Queue Makes Fleet Renewal Harder

Princess Cruises’ three-ship contract with Fincantieri includes deliveries as late as 2039. That is a long planning horizon for an industry ordering ships both to expand and to replace vessels built in the early 1990s.

I’d put that replacement challenge ahead of celebrating a full orderbook. Scarce shipyard capacity can help keep cruise lines from adding too many berths too quickly. But the same constraint also limits how quickly they can bring in newer, more energy-efficient ships.

The cruise ship orderbook now stands at $94.6 billion, with deliveries stretching through 2039. Bud Darr, CEO of the International Cruise Association, said major cruise shipbuilders are “essentially fully booked through 2036” for large vessels, which can take up to four years to build.

Darr said constrained yard capacity limits supply growth while helping prevent a severe supply-demand imbalance. That protection has value. It just comes with a cost that deserves more attention than the headline orderbook figure.

Much of the work sits with one builder

Fincantieri holds orders for 47 ocean-going ships, or 58% of the total by vessel count, with its delivery schedule beginning in November 2026. It is building for 11 brands, including Viking, MSC Cruises, Regent Seven Seas Cruises, Oceania Cruises and Explora Journeys.

Its large-cruise-ship construction capacity is concentrated primarily at Monfalcone, near Trieste, and Marghera, Venice. Fincantieri executives cite passenger-demand growth and the replacement of early-1990s vessels as drivers of ordering, with owners seeking more energy-efficient ships capable of using alternative fuels.

Those are different jobs competing for the same limited construction capacity.

Chantiers de l’Atlantique in Saint-Nazaire and Meyer Werft in Papenburg form the next tier of major builders. Their customer programs include Carnival Cruise Line, Celebrity Cruises, MSC Cruises, Royal Caribbean International and Disney Cruise Line. Meyer Turku is handling Royal Caribbean’s Icon-class construction.

Major European yards, including Fincantieri, are modernizing and upgrading facilities to increase production capacity. That is a more useful response to the bottleneck than treating a decade of bookings as an uncomplicated sign of health.

The pipeline covers very different ships

MSC Cruises and Viking account for sustained ordering across the delivery schedule. Viking’s ocean program comprises ships with 998 lower berths, with deliveries planned in nearly every year through the end of the orderbook. MSC is expanding its LNG-powered World-class and New Frontier-class programs, including vessels exceeding 215,000gt.

Royal Caribbean’s Icon-class ships are the largest vessels on order, at 250,800gt and 6,160 lower berths. Norwegian Cruise Line is advancing its New Era program, while Carnival Cruise Line is developing Project Ace.

Regent Seven Seas, Oceania Cruises, Explora Journeys and Four Seasons Yachts are investing in smaller ships focused on premium accommodation and services.

Additional builders handle smaller-vessel orders. China Merchants Shipbuilding is constructing expedition vessels for United Waterways/Ocean Advice and Mystic Invest Holding. ASENAV, Halong Shipbuilding, T. Mariotti and Shanghai Waigaoqiao also feature in the orderbook.

The fuel choices matter over such a long delivery horizon. LNG propulsion features across large-ship orders for MSC, Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Norwegian. Viking and several expedition operators are also piloting hybrid-electric and hydrogen technologies.

LNG reduces sulfur oxides and particulate emissions, but unburned methane escaping from engines can offset part of its climate benefit, particularly at low engine loads. Newer tonnage can bring improvements without making every propulsion choice a settled environmental answer.

More ships are proposed, but not all are firm

More than 30 additional newbuilds are covered by memorandums of understanding, letters of intent, options and agreements whose details are not yet fully firmed. That group includes firm commitments awaiting fuller specifications as well as potential follow-on ships. It should not be treated as one block of confirmed construction orders.

MSC holds two options at Meyer Werft for 180,000gt New Frontier-class vessels, with delivery contemplated after 2033. Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding’s memorandum of understanding with Nor Cruises covers two firm orders and three additional options for 84,000gt ships.

Royal Caribbean has also signed for two Discovery-class vessels at Chantiers de l’Atlantique, scheduled to debut in 2029 and 2032, with options for four more.

I’d judge this construction boom partly by the older tonnage it allows operators to retire. A full shipyard does not distinguish between fleet expansion and fleet renewal. Both have to wait their turn.