AAA Forecasts Record 22.4 Million U.S. Cruise Passengers in 2027

AAA projects that a record 22.4 million U.S. residents will take ocean cruises in 2027, up 3.6% from the 21.6 million expected in 2026. The forecast would deliver a fifth consecutive annual record for U.S. cruise passenger volume.

The projection is 57% above the 14.2 million Americans who cruised in 2019. U.S. ocean cruise volume first exceeded its pre-pandemic level in 2023, and AAA expects the current year to finish above its earlier forecast.

“Cruising isn't just growing, it's becoming a go-to vacation for more Americans,” said Debbie Haas, vice president of travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. Haas cited the expanding choice of ships, destinations and vacation styles as an attraction for both first-time and experienced passengers.

AAA identifies time with family and friends and the ability to anticipate vacation costs as factors supporting demand. The organization puts the share of U.S. cruise passengers rating their experience good or very good at more than 90%, with 93% booking another cruise.

Caribbean leads the destination mix

The Caribbean accounts for 71% of U.S. cruise passenger volume in the forecast. Alaska follows at 7% and the Mediterranean at 6%, with other destinations collectively representing the remaining 16%.

AAA links the Caribbean’s popularity to its proximity to U.S. departure ports, investment in private destinations and the deployment of ships carrying at least 4,500 passengers. Examples of that destination investment include Carnival’s Celebration Key and Norwegian Cruise Line’s Great Tides Waterpark.

Where passengers embark

Florida also dominates the forecast’s port rankings. Miami is expected to account for 11.2% of embarking and disembarking passenger movements, ahead of Port Canaveral at 10.4% and Fort Lauderdale at 5.3%. Barcelona and Galveston complete the top five, with shares of 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively.

Port Canaveral expects to have 23 homeported ships during fiscal 2027, compared with 20 a year earlier. Its schedule also calls for a 33% increase in days when five or six cruise ships are in port.

New deployments there include Carnival Festivale, scheduled to begin sailing in May 2027, and MSC World Atlantic, due the following fall. The MSC vessel will have capacity for more than 6,000 passengers, and the Carnival ship's capacity is similar.

Shorter sailings take a larger share

Seven-night voyages remain the most popular cruise length, but shorter trips have gained share. In 2025, itineraries lasting no more than six nights accounted for 45% of U.S. ocean cruise passengers, compared with 39% in 2019.

AAA attributes the appeal of shorter sailings to travelers seeking a break without spending a full week away from work, school or other commitments. The organization recommends early booking for the broadest cabin and itinerary selection, particularly in Alaska, where a shorter operating season limits inventory.

“The key is finding the right cruise that meets your needs, and that's where travel agents come in,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel.

What the forecast measures

Tourism Economics prepared the projection with AAA using scheduled itineraries across nearly all major cruise vessels, economic forecasts from Oxford Economics and assumptions about tourism conditions. The analysis measures ocean cruises taken by U.S. residents, whether they depart from domestic or international ports.

Cruise data comes from Tourism Economics’ Cruise Intelligence Platform, which tracks approximately 460 ocean-going vessels and more than 75 operators. The platform covers deployment, capacity, passenger volume and other market measures.

Tourism Economics’ public methodology descriptions identify the broad inputs but do not disclose complete model equations or a forecast-revision policy.